I love football season. When it comes to sports, American Football ranks number 2 on my list right behind Rugby, and it only gets number 2 because they wear pads. No other sport quite matches the amount of strategy and brutality involved in Football. It is the definition of the primal manly instincts, it is war, and I love it. For the past two years, I've been studying statistics trying to see if I could come up with a formula for picking NFL winners, and predicting point spreads. I don't bet live money on the games yet, right now it's strictly pen and paper for me. Last season I finished with a 70% accuracy rating predicting winners, and a 60% success rating picking point spreads. Not great, but not bad either. So for this season, I've tweaked my formula to see if I can do better. In the interest of science, I am making my first pick of the season
Game 1 - Week 1
Green Bay @ Seattle (Thu 9/4)
My Prediction is Seattle -7.14
What that means basically is that Seattle should win by at least 7.14 points. As I write this Vegas Odds are predicting Seattle -6. The Money line of the game as of right now is Seattle -$250 ( meaning that a bet of $250 will win you $100) and Green Bay +$210 (meaning that a bet of $100 dollars wins $210). These bets are strictly for the winners of the game and have nothing to do with point spread. Spread bets almost always pay out at a rate of .90 cents to the dollar, so $100 will get you a win of $90. A winning bet on the underdog wins $110 for a $100 dollar bet. For right now, I like to stick with money line bets in my pen and paper system, as I said earlier I'm better picking winners than spreads as of right now.
We'll see if I'm right on Thursday night I'll have the rest of Sunday's picks up soon.
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